This map illustrates the projected change in the working-age population across Nordic municipalities (large map) and regions (small map) from 2023 to 2040. The working-age population is defined here as individuals aged 20 to 64. The blue areas on the maps represent municipalities and regions where the working-age population is expected to increase during this period. In contrast, the red areas indicate a projected decline in the working-age population. These projections are based on data from Nordic statistical institutes, though it’s important to note that the underlying assumptions may vary between Nordic countries.
In most of the Western world, the working-age population is decreasing. In the EU, this age group is expected to decrease by 6.5% between 2023 and 2040. Only five EU countries – Malta, Luxembourg, Ireland, Sweden and Belgium – are expected to enjoy growth in the working-age population during this period. However, in the Nordic Region as a whole, the working-age population is expected to grow slightly, with an average increase of 1.9%.
As the map shows, the distribution is quite varied, with considerable differences both between and within the countries. The biggest increase is expected in Iceland (28%), followed by Sweden (5.8%), Åland (3.9%) and Norway (0.6%). Decreases are expected in Finland (-0.5%), the Faroe Islands (-2.6%), Denmark (-3.2%) and Greenland (-11.4%). This development is in addition to the decreases already experienced by Finland since 2013.
In general, the trend of growing populations in cities and decreasing populations in rural areas is expected to continue. The regions that are expected to have the highest working-age population growth include Höfuðborgarsvæðið in Iceland, Uppsala (+13%), Stockholm (+12%), Skåne (+9%), Halland (+7%) and Västra Götaland (+6%) in Sweden, Uusimaa (+8%) and Pirkanmaa (+5%) in Finland, and Oslo and Viken in Norway (+5%). In addition, Copenhagen municipality (+5%), Rødovre (+9%) and Vallensbæk (+6%) in the Hovedstad region in Denmark are expected to see significant increases. However, it is expected that the working-age populations in most municipalities in the Hovedstaden region will decline. The Finnish regions of Satakunta, Etelä-Karjala, Kainuu, Kymenlaakso and Etelä-Savo and Greenland are all expected to see a decrease in the working-age population of more than 10%. Across the Nordic Region as a whole, it is expected that rural municipalities will see a 5.8% decline, whereas the urban municipalities will grow by 7.3%, and the semi-urban municipalities will have a stable labour supply. This trend will be further accelerated by developments in the average age of employees
