The Nordic population is ageing faster than ever before. By 2045, nearly all Nordic municipalities are expected to have an ageing population, placing increasing pressure on welfare systems and public services.
These are among the key findings of State of the Nordic Region 2026.
“We have never been as old as we are today in the Nordic Region – and the pace of ageing is accelerating,” says Thomas Niedomysl, Research Director at Nordregio. “At the same time, there is much to learn from regions and municipalities that have long been dealing with these challenges.”
Fertility at historically low levels
One of the main drivers behind rapid population ageing is a sustained decline in fertility. Across all Nordic countries, the average number of children per woman remains well below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain population size without migration.
In 2024, total fertility rates ranged from 1.25 in Finland to 1.91 in the Faroe Islands. Denmark, Norway and Sweden all fall within the mid-1.4 range, while Iceland and Greenland display somewhat higher rates than the larger Nordic countries. Childlessness is increasing, particularly among men.
“Fertility has been declining since around 2010, and research does not yet fully explain why,” says Thomas Niedomysl.
Total fertility rate in the Nordic countries, 1950 to 2024
Growing implications for economies and welfare
As fewer children are born and people live longer, the age structure of the population is shifting significantly.
This has direct consequences for the dependency ratio, or the balance between those of working age and those who depend on them, such as children and older people.
With fewer workers supporting a growing number of dependants, pressure on public finances and welfare systems is expected to increase.
“A rapidly ageing population places strain on existing welfare models,” says Thomas Niedomysl. “It may also have clear political implications as older population groups grow in size.”
A broader picture of regional change
State of the Nordic Region 2026 provides a comprehensive overview of developments across demography, labour markets, and the economy. The report combines data, maps, and analysis to examine how shared trends play out across countries, regions, and municipalities.
Beyond demographic trends, State of the Nordic Region 2026 also examines how labour markets and regional economies are evolving across the Nordics. It highlights shifts towards higher-skilled employment and changing regional growth patterns. The report also explores how regions respond to external pressures such as geopolitical uncertainty and increasing demands on critical infrastructure, offering a comprehensive perspective on the factors shaping Nordic regional development.
The report highlights both common challenges, such as ageing populations, and regional differences in how these changes unfold. By offering a comparative perspective, the report supports informed policy discussions across the Nordic Region.
Report launch on 25 March
To learn more about the findings, join the online launch of State of the Nordic Region 2026 on 25 March (13:00–14:30 CET). Researchers from Nordregio will present key insights from the report and discuss what they mean for policy and regional development across the Nordics. The webinar also offers an opportunity to ask questions and engage in discussion about the future of the Nordic Region.
About State of the Nordic Region 2026
State of the Nordic Region is Nordregio’s flagship publication on regional development. The report covers three themes: demography, labour market and economy. State of the Nordic Region 2026 is the 21st edition in a series of reports published since the 1980s. Published every two years, the report provides a comprehensive overview of key trends shaping the Nordic countries, regions, and municipalities.
