European regions are facing a growing number of overlapping crises. Climate change, volatile energy systems, demographic imbalances, geopolitical instability and global health shocks increasingly interact, creating uncertainty and pressures on places and communities (polycrisis). In this context, the question is no longer how well regions will face disruption to maintain business-as-usual, but how they can respond in ways that strengthen their long-term sustainability.
This was the starting point for the ESPON TERRES project. Rather than treating crises as isolated events, the project explored how regions can navigate complex, long-term development trajectories in times of uncertainty. According to Carlos Tapia, Senior Research Fellow at Nordregio and one of the researchers behind the project, this requires a fundamental rethink of how territorial resilience is understood:
“In such a ‘polycrisis’ context, the concept of territorial resilience is central to regional development. However, traditional understandings of resilience as a reactive strategy, and the policy tools linked to this view, fall short.”
Resilience as transformation
Conventional approaches to resilience often focus on the ability of regions to absorb shocks and return to a previous state. ESPON TERRES challenges this assumption. Instead, it argues for an evolutionary interpretation of resilience that embraces change and transformation.
“Regions need to design strategies not only to ‘bounce back’, but to use crises as an opportunity to ‘bounce forward’ towards renewed sustainable systems,” Tapia explains.
From this perspective, resilience is not about preserving the status quo. Existing economic structures, governance arrangements or social systems may themselves become sources of vulnerability. Crises can therefore act as moments that expose weaknesses but also reveal new pathways for development. The conceptual framework developed in the project reflects this shift. It frames resilience as an embedded territorial capacity to create better, more equitable and more sustainable futures.
“An evolutionary interpretation of regional resilience as an opportunity for positive change brings it closer to the notion of sustainable development, to the point where it becomes difficult to differentiate one from the other,” says Tapia.
Tools to support decision-making
While resilience has become a prominent concept in policy debates, translating it into practice remains a challenge. The ESPON TERRES project addresses this gap by combining conceptual work with policy-oriented tools.
The project produced a suite of materials designed to support decision-making across different levels of governance:
In addition, the project developed two practical tools aimed at regional and local actors:
- Self-Assessment Tool that helps policymakers identify key shocks and long-term stresses affecting their territories and reflect on how governance structures can support resilience.
- Participatory methodology known as Future Workshops, developed by the Nordregio team. These workshops brought forth the benefits of a longer-term engagement, involving the same regional actors on a longitudinal co-creation process for strengethened territorial resilience.
The importance of local actors and trust
Insights from the project case studies underline the importance of involving local communities early in the design of resilience strategies. While resilience is often discussed at EU or national level, its success depends heavily on local engagement.
The research also highlights the role of trust and social cohesion. In contexts where trust in institutions is low, or where communities are divided by polarised political views, reinforcing territorial resilience becomes significantly more difficult. This suggests that resilience is not only a technical or infrastructural issue, but also a social and democratic one.
Who can benefit from the ESPON TERRES project?
At EU level, it contributes to the evidence base for Cohesion Policy and other sectoral policies by offering a more nuanced and future-oriented understanding of territorial resilience. At regional and local levels, it provides practical tools that can be adapted to different governance contexts. The project is also relevant for researchers working on the study of resilience at territorial levels, as well as citizens and local organisations interested in engaging in discussions about preparedness and the design of future pathways.
More analysis for the Swedish context
Nordregio is extending the work on this topic in a new project Territorial Resilience and Green Transition in Northern Sweden. The project aims to further develop and apply a framework for territorial resilience that was constructed in the ESPON TERRES project to the green industrial transition in northern Sweden, with a particular focus on Norrbotten and Västerbotten. Its primary objective is to assess how the regions’ capacities to manage long-term societal transformations are evolving in a context characterised by rapid reindustrialisation and large-scale climate investments.
To achieve this, the project will compile and analyse findings from regional workshops and interviews, complemented by document studies and content analysis. It will also suggest a set of indicators tailored to the Swedish context.
