Abstract
This study examines how environmental risk factors for assault are expressed across cities and demographic groups, using risk terrain modeling (RTM) applied to ten Swedish cities. The analyses identify recurrent environmental features, such as convenience stores, bus stops, restaurants that frequently concentrate assault risk. However, the magnitude, mechanisms, and spatial reach of these associations vary markedly across cities. These differences appear to reflect variation in spatial configuration, land-use patterns, mobility flows, and urban form, consistent with Crime Pattern Theory notions of environmental backcloth and Routine Activity Theory perspectives on differential exposure due to routines. Demographic analyses reveal overlapping but distinct risk environments for men, women, adults, and youth: adults are associated with a broader range of places, whereas youth risk is concentrated around schools, recreational sites, and everyday retail. Shared features often operate through different processes and spatial scales across groups. Overall, the findings indicate that assault risk reflect interactions between environmental features and local spatial–social contexts rather than arising from universal “risky places”. Cities exhibit diverse risk configurations that are further differentiated by age and gender, meaning that population groups experience distinct risk environments even within the same urban space. These results suggest that prevention and policing strategies should be tailored to local spatial structures, demographic routines, and the scales at which risk occurs. Place-sensitive environmental design, community measures, and spatially informed policing aligned with local patterns have strong potential to improve the precision and effectiveness of prevention efforts.
Keywords
Assault, Crime-pattern-theory, Routine-activity-theory, Environmental-criminology, Urban-geography, Risk-terrain-modeling, Demography
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This Working Paper presents the title and abstract of an article that has been published in Applied Geography The full article is available here: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.104101
