Visualizing Future Migration Scenarios for Europe
The FUME project investigated how migration has shaped Amsterdam, Rome, Copenhagen, and Krakow, using data to understand segregation patterns. The findings indicate that despite variations in size, foreign population structure, and migration history, residential segregation, measured using grid cell level data, is surprisingly similar in three cities – Amsterdam, Copenhagen, and Rome. However, Krakow stands out as an exception due to its recent immigrant influx and a smaller migrant population. Even in Krakow, there’s a noticeable downward trend in the dissimilarity index, reflecting a more even allocation of migrants across the city. The storymap includes population estimates and projections by foreign status for cities, which allows decision-makers to use the data in a very flexible way. To achieve this, cutting-edge methods were used such as machine learning and the most available spatially detailed data that is available is collected. The harmonized set of historical data and results of multi-scenario demographic projections allows researchers to study not only past spatial distribution, but also possible futures of spatial processes in cities under different national and regional scenarios; not only those related to population and migration (e.g., changes in the size and structure of mobility flows), but also scenarios of urban development (e.g., investments in infrastructure, housing, transport).
Improving the evidence for European migration policy making
This policy brief synthesizes central results from quantitative migration and population projections on future migration flows to and within the EU and projects the population in EU member states at an unprecedented level of detail, including by age, sex, level of education, and country of origin, produced as part of the FUME project. Migration is an important driver of population change in the European Union. Since 2011, the population in the 27 EU member states has increased by around 8 million people. This increase has been entirely due to migration since natural population change – the difference between births and deaths – was negative during this period. In other words, without international migration, the population in the EU would have declined during the past decade. International migration will also be a key factor for demographic developments in the future. Projections about future migration flows to, within, and from Europe are therefore important for future policy making. Knowing the expected size and composition of migration flows can help policy makers design strategies for rural and urban development, public service provision, labour market issues, and integration. This is the second of two policy briefs that summarize key findings of the FUME project. The first policy brief highlights why people from origin countries decide to migrate and which factors influence their decision on where to go. It also presents qualitative scenarios which describe possible future socio-economic trajectories in Europe and their implications for migration trends. This second policy brief synthesizes central results from quantitative migration and population projections that were produced as part of the FUME project. The projections model future migration flows to and within the EU and project the population in EU member states at an unprecedented level of detail, including by age, sex, level of education, and country of origin. In addition,…
Ukraine: Before the storm
Current events in Ukraine cannot be understood in a vacuum. The story of Ukrainian migration patterns before the Russian invasion in February 2022 provides a context by which one may understand some of the dramatic migration shifts. Some of the places, people, and motivations mentioned in this storymap might have been heavily affected by recent events. The story documents a broader history, migration drivers, and trajectories of Ukrainians’ migration during the peaceful and turbulent times just before the war began, and it provides comparative input for future studies. The material is based on interviews conducted in Ukraine in the first half of 2021. The study is funded by the Horizon 2020 project “Future Migration Scenarios for Europe.” Explore the pre-war migration stories from Ukraine in the storymap below.
Why do people migrate? Where do they choose to migrate?
Today, approximately 3.4 percent of the world’s population are international migrants – people living outside their country of birth. In the future, the number of people who move from one country to another may increase due to population growth in developing countries, increased mobility, political unrest in some world regions, and climate change. The question is how much may international migration flows increase and where will migrants go? The Horizon 2020 project Future migration scenarios for Europe (FUME) focuses on understanding the patterns, motivations, and modalities of migration at multiple geographical scales, from international through regional to the local, and on developing possible future scenarios of migration to Europe. These scenarios shall improve our understanding of the complexity and diversity of migration – and support migration, integration, labour market and cohesion policies at different governance levels. Understanding the drivers of migration, and people’s motivation to migrate is a precondition for making projections of future migration patterns. FUME researchers have interviewed potential migrants and migration experts in four countries of origin – Iraq, Tunisia, Senegal and Ukraine – and analysed demographic trends, livelihood opportunities, the demand for and supply of labour, as well as environmental threats to shed light on people’s motivation to leave or to remain in their places or regions of origin. In addition, migration experts from Europe were interviewed about their expectations regarding future migration to Europe. From the analyses, these factors are likely to influence people’s decision to migrate going forward. This policy brief answers key FUME research questions, summarizes important project findings, and presents policy recommendations. It is based on fieldwork carried out in selected countries of origin including in-depth individual and group interviews of migrants, a review of migration literature, an expert survey of migration researchers, and a Delphi survey of migration experts.
Senegal: Leaving to return
Temporary migration and nomadic lifestyles are embedded in Senegalese culture due to the country’s geographical location, history, and demography. It is driven by environmental, economic and social dilemmas of Senegalese society. What makes people move further, return, or stay? This storymap will provide insights into migration drivers and trajectories, based on the interviews conducted in Senegal between 2020 and 2021. The study is funded by the Horizon 2020 project “Future Migration Scenarios for Europe” . Explore migration stories from Senegal in the storymap below.
Iraq: Lives in transition
During the past five decades, Iraqi society has been navigating through a complex combination of political upheaval, sectarian violence, unemployment struggles, and educational disappointments. This has led many people to migrate—first, from rural to urban areas, and later, abroad in search of stability, peace, and jobs, motivated by the hope for a better life. From where do these migrants come, and where are they going? And what are the factors driving their mobility? This storymap will provide insights into migration drivers and trajectories, based on the interviews conducted in Iraq between January and March of 2021. The study is funded by the Horizon 2020 project “Future Migration Scenarios for Europe” . Explore migration stories from Iraq in the storymap below.
Tunisia: at the crossroad of worlds
Historically, Tunisia has been a gateaway for migrants from Sub-Saharan Africa to Europe. Recently, the migration pathway started to change. The country has become not only the area of trasition but also of destination and settlement. What has made the biggest impact on such a turn? What motivates and prevents people from moving to certain areas of Tunisia and abroad? This storymap will provide insights into migration drivers and trajectories, based on the interviews conducted in Tunisia between January and October, 2021. The study is funded by a Horizon 2020 project “Future Migration Scenarios for Europe” . Explore migration stories from Tunisia in the storymap below.
Each issue of the Nordregio Magazine provides perspectives on a specific theme related to regional development and planning in the Nordic countries. With Nordregio Magazine you are kept up to date with the interesting research results produced by Nordregio in a European and global perspective.
- 2022 January
- Nordregio magazine
- Baltic Sea Region
- Nordic Region
- Arctic issues
- Gender equality
- Green transition
- Labour market
- Maritime spatial planning
- Regional innovation
- Rural development
- Sustainable development
- Urban planning
Agenda 2030 och hållbarhetsmålen på lokal nivå
De nordiska länderna toppar ofta globala rankningar över hållbar utveckling. De har väletablerade demokratiska system som motarbetar fattigdom, främjar ekonomisk tillväxt, säkerställer jämställdhet, skyddar miljön, samt upprätthåller fred och rättvisa. Mycket av framgången i Norden har sina rötter i det lokala förvaltningssystemet där många beslut fattas i kommunala demokratiska organ. I de nordiska länderna är kommunerna den mest lokala formen av officiella offentliga myndigheter med valda politiker. Kommunerna och regionerna stöttar på många sätt välbefinnandet i vårt dagliga liv i Norden. De tillhandahåller offentliga tjänster som infrastruktur, avfallshantering och sociala tjänster. Därför har lokala och regionala myndigheter en nyckelroll för framgångsrik implementering av hållbarhetsambitioner som fastställs på andra förvaltningsnivåer. En omställning till hållbar utveckling sker inte utan de lokala och regionala myndigheterna. Den här policy briefen är en översättning av den policy brief som först publicerades på engelska, under våren 2020. Länk till den engelska versionen samt den rapport som publicerades under hösten 2019 finns längre ned på den här sidan.
Agenda 2030 and SDGs at the local level – a brief start-up guide
The Nordic countries are often placed at the top of global rankings on sustainable development. Well-established democratic systems are in place to fight poverty, promote economic growth and ensure gender equality, as well as to protect the environment and peace and justice. Much of the success of the Nordic Region stems from the local system of governance, under which many decisions are taken in local democratic forums. In the Nordic countries, municipalities are the most local form of official public authority with elected politicians. In many ways, municipalities and regions support the wellbeing of our everyday lives in the Nordic Region. They provide public services such as infrastructure, waste treatment and social services. Therefore, local and regional authorities are critical to the overall successful implementation of the sustainability ambitions established at other government levels. A change towards sustainable development will not occur without the commitment of the local and regional governments. In October 2019, the Nordic Council of Ministers organised an event in Stockholm for Nordic municipalities and other local authorities to meet and exchange their experiences in working with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This policy brief provides a synthesis of conclusions from the event, findings from a previous study on the topic and the authors’ experience within the sustainability field.
Transition to a bioeconomy in Northwest Russia – current potential and challenges
The development of a bioeconomy is at the forefront of the national and regional agendas of many European countries. Yet, little is known about the status and the institutional and policy frameworks for bioeconomy development in Northwest Russia. This policy brief aims at increasing the understanding of the opportunities and challenges for bioeconomy development in Northwest Russia by drawing upon lessons learned from bioeconomy case studies in the Republic of Karelia, Murmansk and Arkhangelsk oblasts.
Transition to a bioeconomy in Northwest Russia: regional cases of the Republic of Karelia and Murmansk oblast
The development of a bioeconomy is at the forefront of the national and regional agendas of many European countries given not only its potential to counter climate change through replacing goods and services currently produced using fossil fuels and other non-renewable resources, but also the new economic activities in and around the rural regions it stimulates. However, there is relatively little known about the status and institutional and policy frameworks for bioeconomy development in Northwest Russia. The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview of the status of and institutional framework for a bioeconomy in the Republic of Karelia and Murmansk oblast. The study identifies some of the main support mechanisms and incentives, as well as the potential and challenges, for bioeconomy development in these regions today and in the future. This study, which was financed by the Nordic Council of Ministers in 2018–2019, Kicking off the Bioeconomy in the North, draws upon the lessons learned from the study financed by the Nordic Council of Ministers in 2018, ‘Forest and Waste-based Bioeconomy in the Arkhangelsk region’.
Nordic capital regions in the global network economy
What positions and roles do our Nordic cities have in this world of flows, and how does the global network economy impact on Copenhagen, Helsinki, Oslo, and Stockholm, and on Nordic urban policymaking more generally? World cities such as New York, London, Paris and Singapore are seen as central nodes in the global networks of capital, commodities, knowledge, people and cultural symbols. In this sense, they function as important hubs for the interaction of skilled labour and their ‘tacit knowledge’, as financial control centres and as major points of origin for the generation of different kinds of innovations (i.e. social, cultural, and technical). This Nordregio policy brief highlights how globalisation creates new challenges and opportunities for policymakers in the Nordic capital regions. “Can I pay someone to write my research paper“? Yes, you can! Professional writing service is ready to write all your research papers quickly and cheaply.